The front has frozen. In October, the Russian army managed to capture only 7 sq. km — th...

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🪖🚩 The front has frozen. In October, the Russian army managed to capture only 7 sq. km — its lowest figure since autumn 2023 and far less than in the autumn months of the previous two years

The advance of Russian troops in Ukraine has virtually stopped amid reports of record personnel losses.

▪️The Russian armed forces’ net territorial gains in Ukraine in October amounted to just 7.2 sq. km, according to data from the Russian monitoring project Creamy Caprice (see infographic). This is the lowest monthly figure since the project began operating in autumn 2023.

▪️In October, Russian forces lost nearly 150 sq. km on the Lyman front, where the Ukrainian armed forces have been conducting a counteroffensive since the summer (Operation Vivaldi). Creamy Caprice recorded 117 sq. km of gains on the Kharkiv front, but whether this territory was actually captured remains in doubt, since the Russian Defense Ministry used fake videos to support its claim.

▪️In previous years, the Russian army usually accelerated its offensive in the autumn months. According to the same Creamy Caprice data, it captured 492 and 586 sq. km in September and October 2025, respectively. The Russian armed forces made their greatest advances on the Novopavlivka and Lyman fronts, although the fiercest fighting at the time was for Pokrovsk. In September and October 2024, Russian forces took 398 and 559 sq. km, respectively. At that time, they were advancing mainly in southern Donetsk region.

▪️The pace of the Russian offensive fell sharply in spring 2026 and has not increased since, despite Putin’s claims. Conflict Intelligence Team founder Ruslan Leviev believes the trend will continue in November as cold weather sets in and leaves fall — seasonal factors that make offensive operations more difficult.

▪️In October, the Russian army suffered its highest monthly losses since the invasion began — 54,400 people, Zelensky said (including those killed and seriously wounded). Losses were roughly the same in September (50,000 people), Bloomberg reported, citing a senior NATO official.

▪️CIT puts Russian losses lower, at 25,000–30,000 people a month. Leviev notes that a figure of 50,000 is significantly higher than the number of contract soldiers being recruited (about 30,000 a month), and that in such a case Russian forces would be unable to advance at all and would be forced to retreat.

▪️Pro-war Z bloggers write that the flow of volunteers has declined: “There are several times fewer now than in 2023–24. It’s very noticeable. In 2023–24, battalions would arrive at training centers every 2–3 weeks; now, with luck, they can scrape together a company.”

“There are no men, but you have to attack, and if you don’t attack, you’ll be sent into assaults yourself,” another author quotes Russian commanders as saying.

▪️Against this backdrop, recruiters have stepped up their efforts in post-Soviet countries, promising jobs as loaders and laborers in Moscow for 260,000 rubles a month and a 2.3 million ruble signing bonus. But the job description specifies a contract with the Defense Ministry. Forced recruitment has also intensified in Russia — we wrote more about it here.