The Wall Street Journal writes that Ratcliffe may have traveled to Moscow in connection with intelligence previously received by the U.S. about Russian mobilization plans...

The Wall Street Journal writes that Ratcliffe may have traveled to Moscow in connection with information previously obtained by U.S. intelligence about Russia preparing for mobilization and possible escalation against NATO.

The same view is shared by independent journalist Michael Weiss and former deputy director of national intelligence Beth Sanner.

So far, these are opinions, not insider reports. Still, I will provide the quotes.

▪️WSJ: "The visit comes amid U.S. efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine, as well as the war in Iran, though the purpose of the trip is not yet entirely clear. The U.S. had previously received information about Russia's preliminary preparations for possible mobilization, as well as plans to test the resolve of the North Atlantic alliance. Analysts believe Ratcliffe may have met with Putin to deliver a warning to him."

▪️Sanner (quoted by WSJ): "Maybe this is to say: 'We know what you're about to do, and you'd better not do it.' It could also be related to the ceasefire in Iran and attempts to bring someone else into the discussion."

▪️Weiss: "If I were betting, I'd say Ratcliffe is in Moscow to dissuade Russia from escalating against Europe/NATO. This is related to intelligence the U.S. shared with the Poles, the Baltics, and the Scandinavians, and it comes amid a spike in alleged GRU sabotage operations, as well as Russian drone activity."

Ukrainian insiders Ukraine context and Yulia Zabelina write that Ukraine knew about Ratcliffe's upcoming visit to Moscow, and that Washington asked Kyiv not to strike Moscow and the northern regions, and also that the visit is linked to some kind of "special operation."

Axios confirms that the U.S. asked Ukraine not to hit Moscow until Ratcliffe had left.

What kind of "special operation" could this be?

These are already my guesses. On August 18-20, NATO held undeclared exercises in the Baltic Sea around Kaliningrad Oblast.

Yigal Levin wrote about them:

▪️The exercises involved Eurofighter Typhoon and F-35A fighter jets, E-3A Sentry AWACS aircraft, P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as a significant number of A330 MRTT, KC-135R, and one Italian KC-767 tanker aircraft.

▪️Judging by the nature of the forces involved, the drills were clearly aimed not only at routine patrols, but also at rehearsing complex air operations with prolonged time in the air, aerial refueling, radar control, and fighter operations at a great distance from their home airfields.

It is also being reported that, after leaving Vnukovo, Ratcliffe did not fly straight to Washington but made a stop in Riga. But Ratcliffe also flew to Moscow from Riga - perhaps it was simply a convenient transfer point.