Rubio.

Rubio.

It is probably worth breaking down his interview today, since there are several important points in it.

1. For the first time, it is said directly that there are no prospects for a peaceful settlement. That is a realistic view of things. The point about a strategic stalemate that could lead to escalation is well put.

2. Rubio confirms that giving up Donbas is unacceptable for Ukraine.

But two things really make me cringe when they come from Rubio:

3. He is once again playing dumb and making it look as if the conflict revolves around Donbas. No, no, and no again. For Russia, this is a war to physically destroy Ukraine; for Ukraine, it is a war for survival.

4. His detached outsider stance when he says that the conflict could go beyond the two sides. As if to say, well yes, it could happen, very unfortunate. Which implies that the United States is not going to do anything about it. Do we need to be reminded from the history of World War II what happens when a major power decides not to intervene?

In bullet points.

▪️Unfortunately, the war is in its fifth year. I do not think Putin had that kind of plan for this war, so it has not gone according to his plan.

▪️Right now, unfortunately, we have a strategic stalemate, but that is a dangerous thing.

▪️A strategic stalemate is resolved in two ways:

a) through a negotiated settlement;

b) through escalation by one side or both, which leads to the conflict spreading beyond its original borders.

▪️Right now, it seems, there are no prospects for a negotiated settlement.

▪️The Russians have defined victory as all of Donbas; they have repeatedly indicated that this is their goal, and they continue to say so.

▪️This is a condition that is simply unacceptable for Ukraine.

▪️At the same time, we are watching with great concern, because escalation may happen.

▪️We are concerned about a sabotage operation in a neighboring country that could get out of control.

(What country would that be? Or is this about multiple countries, just a translation error?)

▪️And, obviously, there are clear signs that Russia is using the coming winter to destroy what remains of Ukraine's power grid and force it to capitulate.

▪️At the same time, Ukraine has also become more effective in its ability to carry out long-range strikes on Russia.

▪️So we share the same concerns. The whole world believes this could escalate and grow into a wider conflict.