Trump held a phone call with Putin and said that Russia had agreed to...

Trump held a phone call with Putin and said that Russia had agreed to supply up to 5 million tons of diesel fuel to the American and global markets over the next several months.

The license to sell diesel fuel has been issued for six months, until April 7, 2027.

For all the vileness of Trump’s decision, the statement mostly prompts a facepalm. I will explain why, but first, the basics.

▪️I have just had a very successful discussion with President Putin, where it was agreed that Russia will:

supply 300,000 tons of diesel fuel immediately;

supply 500,000 tons of diesel fuel during November;

supply 1 million tons of diesel fuel immediately after that.

▪️Additionally, in accordance with the condition of its diesel refineries, Russia will supply another 3 million tons of diesel fuel.

▪️Because of our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz and this magnificent announcement, diesel prices for Americans and the entire world will be FALLING AT RECORD SPEED!

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So, look.

In March 2026, the first month after Hormuz was closed and one of the last months before Russian diesel exports stopped, Russia exported 1.78 million tons per month.

Trump is proposing: 0.3 million tons immediately, meaning in October + 0.5 million tons in November + 1 million tons in December.

That is 1.8 million tons over the next three months, exactly the same amount as in March 2026.

After that, as Russian refineries are restored, another 3 million tons are supposed to be supplied (meaning up to 5 million tons in total, if I understood Trump’s post correctly; the text is written a bit idiotically).

5 million tons over six months is 0.8 million tons per month.

What do we have in the bottom line?

The proposed volume of supplies for October-December combined is the same as for all of March. But something else is interesting: HOW Russia will do this.

Because Russia stopped exporting diesel, surprise, surprise, not because of U.S. sanctions, but because of Ukraine’s strikes.

And if Russia starts exporting these volumes, then, as you understand, that will not make more diesel appear inside Russia :)

More diesel for export means less diesel for the domestic market, and longer lines at gas stations.

Ukraine will not stop striking refineries, in case anyone thought otherwise.

So it is not even certain that Russia will be able to supply these volumes, even if it wants to.

Next. This will not have much effect on diesel prices in the U.S. The share of Russian diesel on the global market, again, BEFORE Hormuz was closed, was around 10%.

Maybe Trump will get diesel prices down by up to 10%, but that is unlikely to improve his election position very much.

In sum. Trump’s panicked decision, which:

1) will give him almost nothing in the short term, because 0.3 million tons before November is very little;

2) may not even be implementable in the long term, because Russia will not suddenly have more diesel;

3) any increase in Russian exports will be offset by the domestic shortage.

P.S. Of everyone I managed to read, only Yan Matveev did not run after the mainstream, but simply sat down and analyzed everything dryly, for which many thanks to him.