Axios.

Original source

Axios.

Oof...

▪️Trump’s announcement of an "energy ceasefire" concerns strikes on oil refineries. Trump expects Zelensky to comply with it. A U.S. official believes that if attacks on oil refineries stop, the next deal will be about the energy grid.

▪️An "oil refinery for oil refinery" exchange is biased against Ukraine. Ukraine has only one refinery, and it is in a semi-operational state because the Russians have attacked it many times. Russia, meanwhile, has a broad network of refineries. Ukraine imports oil and gas. Ukraine wants Russia to stop strikes on its energy grid.

▪️"The Russians are considering the proposal. Soon we will know whether they are ready," a White House official said.

(Indeed... what will Russia’s answer be, huh?)

▪️Russia has not accepted any form of ceasefire by this point. Several hours after Trump’s announcement, Russia struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure. (It hit CHPP-5 in Kharkiv. There was also a strike on a grocery store, killing 3 people, - ed.)

▪️White House officials warn that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are hurting Zelensky’s relationship with Trump more than they are damaging Russia.

"Trump is really pissed. He thinks Zelensky is taking the U.S. for granted," a White House official said.

▪️Amid the crisis, special envoys Witkoff and Kushner postponed their planned trip to Moscow until they receive clarity on a new joint proposal to Putin from Ukraine and Europe.

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So in Trump’s understanding, an "energy ceasefire" means both sides stop strikes on oil refineries. And never mind that Ukraine has one non-operational Kremenchuk refinery, which Russia has hit a dozen times during the war, while Russia has 36.

The fact that they are also waiting for some kind of answer from Russia... Either they really are that naive, or they are deliberately pretending and treating everyone like idiots.

The Ceasefire Math Favors Russia

The refinery proposal puts Ukraine in a plainly unequal position.

Balance was calculated without reality again.